tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC September 21, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
that's the biggie on the back side of all of this. >> yes, it's of course have to keep an eye on headlines over the weekend regarding rahoi and spain. rick have a great weekend. >> you, too. >> talk to you next week. the "fast money" guys are in the house. have a great weekend. see you monday. ♪ here's a look at the wall today, four hours to go until the close. here is where we stand on the street, plenty of green arrows across the board today as we wrap up an interesting week on wall street, dow is good for 38, s&p and nasdaq higher today as well and here's what we're following on halftime from the new york stock exchange. where does the dow go from here? is 14,000 really in sight? saving face, facebook shares up 20% in two weeks, is now the time to get in or did you miss your opportunity? but first our top story, you know what it is, iphone fever,
the new phone is here on sale today and around the world, from hong kong to singapore, japan, california, colorado, and new york. apple fans are lining up to get their hands on the company's latest gadget, but the key question for investors, will the sales live up to all of the hype? we're live at the big board as i mentioned with steve weiss, john najari najarian, steve grasso and joer it terranova. good to have you on the show. john, i'll start with you, are the sales going to live up to the hype? >> you better this are. look at the lines in germany today as well as the lines of course across our country it's not even being sold on the west coast yet and you get an idea for how big this is going to be, scott. i think this s i'm long gold in apple terms by the way, tip of the hat to my friend dennis gardman. i think this is a big thing and we've got another week's worth of it because next friday we'll get reports of how many were sold during this first period.
>> weiss, there are big numbers being thrown around today as to how big the sales will be, 6 million, 6.5 million, one note today from gene muenster thinks it could be 8 million by virtue of his channel checks, that being the lines, which he says are 83% bigger than they were a year ago or whatever. >> i'm sure gene has had the time to at least see two lines. that makes it unanimous. we're going to have analysts like they do with the price target have them saying can you top this and picking the high end, some will pick the low end of estimates, but what it's going to be about in not too short an order is what is the next product, where is the next growth, come back to itv, so you can still own apple. it's a great play and i'm not trying to start early here but it's a good thing that doc is sitting between me and grasso. >> you took the words out of my mouth. i was afraid to bring you down and put you at the same table but behave yourselves. >> it's nice to see you at the
adult table for once. >> may need some hazing rules but from the moment i walked in it's been a battle. >> all of asso have his back. >> the point on the iphone, i don't think, steve, they're really looking for another product launch so quickly because they have this one, it's 70%, 80% depending on how successful it is of their profits, they'll focus on the iphone, all they need to hold the price point where it and the sentiment. >> joe terranova, do you think the trcriticism or the controvey of mapping software or the map app really makes a difference in the long run? yeah, remember everybody was talking about that dropped call thing when you put your thumb on a certain area of the phone before? i don't hear anybody talking about that now. >> well, and scott i'm going to hold the iphone 5 up right here as you can see it and the -- ♪ >> brian sullivan was talking about this before, the mapping function is totally fine, no problem at all. when you utilize the fine, what
stands out is it's incredibly light, whether you use it on a wireless network or on your carrier it is incredibly faster than what you're going to experience with the iphone 4s and most importantly to the apple iphone story here is the bag that it comes in, and i think this is all about verizon. we talked about it in the last couple weeks, i think that's the right trade. at&t is on a 52-week high but i think you move the allocations into verizon wireless. this is the moment they've built up for the last couple of years with the lte expansion, they cover more than all the other carriers behind. when you go into the store what is the message? all of at tendees helping you wearing t-shirts on the back of the t-shirts they show that chart i'm talking about their expansion of lte coverage. >> doc, can you buy apple shares or too pricey even from a valuation standpoint everybody says apple shares are cheap. they've had a great run. do you go to some of the derivative places? >> i think you buy it tuesday, next week, rather than today.
you'll probably have some folks that on monday may get in there and sell them a little bit. you've heard about the scratches on the back because it's an aluminum backed phoneily stead of the guerrilla glass. i don't think anybody is going to return it because the back scratches. i think they jump back in. joe i love you but i take exception with the verizon call. at&t with the shared devices that is key, a lot of people like that plan because it makes the iphone accessible to more people because they're sharing that data plan. >> verizon has that as well, doc. it has the product share also. >> but that's why they don't switch over from at&t to verizon. >> but when you do the math i just switched from at&t to verizon, my verizon bill will be cheaper. >> weiss, what was your point? >> i like them both but verizon has a slight edge because they've got a much, much bigger lte network than the telephone does but play them both.
they both have room to the upside, yes historical basis on pe maybe they're overvalued about you that doesn't matter and as to apple, yeah, any time you try to be cute and try to pick your spot to get in, you can't. >> you can't. >> just get in. it's not where it's coming from, it's where it's going to, it's going higher. >> we talked about the hype, jon fortt is outside an apple store in pa llo alt lolo alto, califo. the doors opened about an hour ago. set the scene from the west coast. >> reporter: first of all they took care of this line pretty much entirely in an hour, so that's interesting. line definitely not 83% longer here. one of the things that customers told me, apple has been a lot more efficient this time around, they had the blue shirted employees lining up with customers outside the store, saying hi, getting to know exactly what they wanted to when they went in they could get them out quickly. that was good. couple interest things, though, they have no adapters in the store, customers asking for the
adapters from the old connector to the new one, they don't have them on hand, not to say they don't have them anywhere in the country. these are in short supply. one customer told me they don't have any extra cables. some customers want extra cables, you want one at work, one at home, various places so you can plug your phone in. they don't have any extra, that's what they told him and won't have any until next month, beginning of october, i don't know, that's a week and a half away. couple interest details how they're handling that. i heard you talking about at&t and verizon. i got a note from comscore saying more than 60% of the preordered traffic online was sending orders to at&t, so want to assess where come scoscore i getting that data, but at&t doing better than some people thought they would once verizon came into the market and iphone 5 with lte, people thought the advantage would clearly be with verizon.
back to you. >> jon, quickly, what is an acceptable number for sales this weekend? >> reporter: i think the 8 million number that piper jaffray is a good number, 10 million is high end. if it's lower than 8 million i think that would be disappointing. >> jon fortt thanks so much. apple maps is the big controversy surrounding the iphone 5, is it proof that apple is more bully than innovator? henry blodget, ceo and editor-in-chief of "business insider" good to he so you. >> great to be here. >> what is the real story here with this whole deal, with apple? >> nobody knows the real story of what happened but it looks like apple is saying this is a tremendously valuable application, we want to own it, we're booting google, putting our own thing in place and there have been some complaints about the quality of it but it's a small issue to what you said earlier. the bigger issue, is apple so unfathomably rich and powerful that people start to get angry about these moves and you start
to get anti-apple sentiment building up. >> the difference between an apple and microsoft is apple and speaking to sort of the anti-trust and the big bully thing around microsoft for so long is apple selling its own devices, coming up, it has its own software, coming up with its own devices t can do whatever the heck it wants. >> apple is protected by the fact it's nowhere near a monopoly. samsung has a bigger global market share so they're protected by that. that said, they so tightly control that desktop, they take a huge piece of the profit, they have now effectively kicked google off, so again you can see some sentiment building. i don't think it's an anti-trust issue at all. >> do you think the sales will, in fact, live up to the hype or is the hype just gotten out of control? the fact there's lines all over the country for a phone, this is like crack for technophyles at this point. >> the effort people go to, to be the first to get it, it's extraordinary and a testament to the magic apple created around
their devices. gene muenster's analysis is sound, the 8 million number seems like what they're headed for. >> i'll put your analyst hat back on. if you were on a call with tim cook, what would be your first question at this point? >> the question is, what can they do long-term? everyone nailed it, jon, steve, and steve nailed what is likely to happen, you have the mini coming, but there is this expectation around tv, suddenly it's gone quiet, what happens with that, and then what happens next year, because that will be the first year that you really are way beyond the influence of steve jobs, are you going to have the same sort of quantum leaps in products? where is the company going? does tim have that? so far tim has done a spectacular job. >> you would have no doubt in your mind as an analyst covering this company on a day-to-day basis that tim cook can take this beyond sort of the aftermath, the initial aftermath of jobs, where the blueprint was largely laid out, he doesn't have to architect something new at this point yet.
>> well he already has. it's been a spectacular year and a half for the company. the question is, what they do on tv because steve jobs intimated that was going to be a big opportunity, big product, there's a lot of expectation around that. we've got to see that but the good news for apple in all of its products we're early in the rollout for all of them. there's a tremendous amount of market share that they can gain so they don't radically have to innovate. they keep gaining share and they'll be in good shape. >> henry, can i jump in? >> of course, i want you to. >> when does the ecosystem work against apple? i feel as if i'm being held p z prisoner to buying the iphone. when i look at the rest of my house everything else is all apple. when does it work against them? >> that is playing into my decision, too. i'm chafing at the idea the iphone 5 is smaller, samsung is bigger and smoother but you have all of the iphone cords all over the house although this has a different cord, things like the google map they have to be
careful. >>s they' why they came out with the ipad mini, they're there to compete against the samsung note, the samsung note phone because that's where they're in the middle ground. >> and google and amazon's kindle made a lot of headway. >> that was my next question, henry. yesterday walmart said they're not going to be selling kindles anymore, stripped it off their website and everything. initial reaction out of amazon was bad and then it came back of course and we're back to the whole mark. that is a category killer for these guys, they go to that mini especially with these big retailers shunning the kindle device because it competes with them, it's a retailer in their store, that's key for apple. >> you've got a waltz of elephants going after it. >> a waltz of elephants. >> amazon is tremendously powerful and their feeling is who is going to buy the kindle? a lot of parents for kids, at 100 bucks, 200 bucks, makes the difference because the kid will drop it, break it, want to get another one, it's cheaper, so
that play plmay play into it. >> what's happening at google no one is talking about it, the stealth move higher, blurry page is orchestrated an interesting turnaround in the momentum of what those shares have done as tim cook and larry page battle for supremacy right now. these are stocks that are at 700 plus each. what do you think of the google story? is that the one that has the biggest trajectory at this point or no? >> we haven't seen what the motorola google tie-up is going to produce. the only thing motorola announced a phone they had designed before google got it. we'll see what the strategy is whether they try to build a phone, push away all of the resalers since they were going straight at it. interesting to see, the stock has had a tremendous run. >> google's story of the anti-apple, they give the operating system away for free and hope to breed from there. >> to protect their castle of search. >> absolutely. the amazon, apple, google fight is going to be so interesting because they're coming at it with a different core business.
>> amazon will have their own challenge with states charging tax, and go back to the bully versus innovator. i remember target hit its stride and costco, everybody said walmart was the bully. you had companies willing to get no margin to get the shelf space and apple is nowhere near in terms of penetration where walmart is so that keeps going. >> the other issue is people have passionate sentiment around apple because they were left for dead 15 years ago, you champion the underdog, now they are the overdog, the most valuable, powerful company in the world and so that's a less sympathetic position to be in. they've got to worry about that as they make these decisions. >> i like the way you put that. good to see you. henry blodget, business insider ceo and editor-in-chief. still to come you don't have to own apple stock to make money off the iphone mania.
first gold is closing in on 52-week highs, a top analyst takes us inside the gold rush and gives new year-end target when "halftime" comes back from the big board, the new york stock exchange this friday on the street. how do you know which ones to follow? the equity summary score consolidates the ratings
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i think gold should be a part of everybody's portfolio to some degree because it diverse fiz the portfolio. it is the alternative money. >> warren buffett won't touch gold. >> okay, yep. >> you think he's wrong? clearly you must. >> i think he's making a big mistake. >> well, warren buffett may not be a big believer in the gold rally but our next guess is. weeden's chief global stratiest
michael purvis updates his year-end target. welcome back. >> great to be on. >> i want to use your insights again, shine some light on us if you will, call gold now. >> i'm looking for 2,000 by the end of the year and things directly related to gold, silver and the gold mining equities to move aggressively higher. one key message i'd like to get out there we've seen a lot of money made over the last several weeks but we have to step back and realize this is part of a really breaking out of a consolidation and really important move to the upside across the precious metals complex. so don't be so fast to take profits here. >> what will take it to the 2,000 level, just central bank activity around the world, don't fight the fed and this is a perfect reason why? >> right now we have you know american, european and japanese helicopters increasingly showering the world with money
and therefore debasing the reserve currencies. gold is still underowned by a wide spectrum of investors and owners, the official sector, the central banks, whether it's individuals, whether it's institutions so it's a process of long-term accumulation and currently diversification, it's not necessarily a world coming to the end fear trade, so i think right now the table's been set particularly after last week's fomc and also from the news we're seeing out of europe, it's important to point out that the bullish sentiment on gold and silver is low compared to where it was in 2010-2011, the spec interest is low as well. gold's been off everyone's radar for a long time because it went through a messy consolidation. that's at an end i think and i think we'll see continued moves to the upside. >> joe terranova you want in? >> michael, i guess the question goes back to mr. dalio's comments and investor's portfolio, what would the
allocation percentage be you suggest? >> i think that ranges from investor to investor. right now i would definitely weight heavily towards gold but more so to gold mining equities. that's been an incredibly messy trade, massive underperformance. >> when you say the weight heavily, could you quantify that? >> in terms of percentage it depends what your strategies and your, you know, individual time -- >> as an individual investor. >> 5% to 10%, and perhaps more. >> thank you. >> michael, it's steve grasso. i heard your comments on gold going back to may, about the miners, you nailed that call and what i find interesting is the relationship between gold and the gold miners, the ratio. >> right, exactly. >> how do you quantify it? where do you know? you nailed it where gbx
outperforms yield grossly to the upside and everything else outperformed as well. so where do we know when the ratio is topping? >> it's a great question. you have to look at the gold to gdx ratio, really as a metric and you have to look at technical analysis on it, look for double tops and we saw that on that ratio, just as the gdx double bottomed, and right now i think there's a lot of momentum to the downside in the gold-to-gdx ratio whether you look at a macd or weekly rsi on the ratio, i november i'm getting technical but it's very important that web you see momentum on that ratio moving down you don't need gold to move up dramatically to make a ton of money on the gdx and the same principles apply to silver as well. >> michael, interesting thoughts, thanks so much for coming on. >> glad to be here. >> michael purves today with weeden and company. guys there's been a days agreement on the desk between the gld and the gdx. you like grasso the gdx.
>> from may, gdx is up, may 17th to be precise is up 41%, gld is up 14.8%. >> we're talking the miners versus gold itself. >> if you go back a year, look at a one-year return, you have gold massively outperforming. >> different part of the story. >> let's go from here forward. we know about the underperformance of the miners. >> so go from here forward i think you play just the commodity and the reason being that if you're a retail investor why do the company analysis? take a look at neuman, the leader of the group and that had disaster before, 2.6% yield so why mess around with the company analysis and also what mining costs could be and what their proven or probable reserves could be and go for the commodity. >> totally agree with your premise but mike whole is just on the show there's a reaction here where you see this whiplash effect with the miners that catch up so everything you said is 100% accurate but if it still
doesn't stop gd examine, from grossly outperforming. >> look at the stock market itself, there's a lot of hype around apple today and this may be one of the most hated so to speak rallies ever, but it certainly is one of its most successful, because a september gain would be the dow's 11th monthly gain in the last 12 months. that hasn't happened in more than 53 years. it's been one hell of a rally. >> it's been great and what is interesting is that we've had 11 c c consecutive months of bad data coming out of china, pushing off the bad news looking to the future. i still think it goes up because you've got a worldwide easing and while stocks are a little stretched now you need multiple expansion i've never been a believer in that so i'm going to be cautious until we get more to the heart of earnings season than i am right now but right now it's going to grind up, no more huge pops. >> coming up, trading the companies making up the iphone, we're piecing together apple's
best derivative plays. plus are facebook shares on the verge of a big turnaround? we'll get answers to that interesting question and why the tide could be changing in a small cap rally. what you need to know before you invest your money in that space. we'll be right back. with the fidelity stock screener, you can try strategies from independent experts and see what criteria they use. such as a 5% yield on dividend-paying stocks. then you can customize the strategies and narrow down to exactly those stocks you want to follow. i'm mark allen of fidelity investments. the expert strategies feature is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. insulifreestyle lite can. help you test easy. they need a third the blood of onetouch ultra. zipwik tabs target the blood and pull it in. call now for free strips
welcome back to the new york stock exchange as people line up outside apple stores across the country, it's the components inside the new phone that traders are watching. ifixit.com has cracked open the iphone 5, like gallagher cracks open watermelons to see how qualcomm, broadcom and others play into the design. you can never get enough of gallagher. >> i don't think he's going to be invited back by the cme. >> you look like a handsome version of gallagher. i'll throw it out there. >> what is the best play in that space? >> i think qualcomm, plays into what joe terranova is talking, that's the cdma technology. if you're believing that verizon is getting the biggest boost, which i don't believe, i still do like qualcomm in play there because of the cdmi. >> joe terranova which stock
within the apple universe or those components inside the five have the biggest upside, do you think? qualcomm is a good stock certainly. does it have more upside than the smaller, lesser known companies, like skyworks, pmc, you know where i'm going, right? >> excellent point. it appears as though skyworks gained in terms of the components of what they previously had in the 4s and the 4, so i believe now they have an extra outlet they're contributing here, you're seeing a significant search into skyworks so succinctly answer your question the most upside potential is in skyworks. >> doc you want to comment? >> did not tea have a big sell-off, so swks, so that gives you better entry than two days ago. >> it's easy to make calls of the best of breed names in callsome you feel safer making a call like that. it's interesting to go further
down the ecosystem if you will. >> on this list, though, the reason i said qualcomm also is because that's on lee cooperman's list. if it's on lee's list it's good enough for me. >> let's talk about facebook now. don't forget about it. the massive turnaround is impressive. in two and a half weeks the stock rocketed more than 25% from its jaut time low hit on september 4th, it's obviously still well below its ipo price but is there time still to get in here? colin sebastian of r.w. baird is with us. colin welcome to halftime. >> thanks for having me. >> give us the answer to that question, saving face, clearly what zuckerberg hoped to do when he went public for the first time a couple weeks back. >> i agree, that was the first catalyst to get the stock moving. he sounded more confident, upbeat in the company's future and quite frankly the company is also showing some early signs of success on mobile platforms, and we all know that's where most of the growth is online, and so
that shifted the tenor of the debate from the ipo and lockups. >> certainly may have sounded more confident but it seems as though investors in wall street itself are more confident in him, right? they feel like he really does have a handle on what's happening with the business, where the growth really could come from. >> i think that's right. over the summer, we've seen facebook make progress with their mobile apps and ios and soon with android, talking to advertisers telling us they're seeing better returns with their advertising dollars spent on facebook. >> steve weiss -- let's also throw out for everybody you have a $37 price target on the stock so just about back at ipo and outperform. steve weiss, trader sitting to my left has a question for you, colin. >> what are your concerned about the lockup? from my standpoint i'd like to see them put together anybody that wants to sell and do an offering like goldman or jpmorgan, instead of morgan stanley, but doesn't that bother
you with all the stock that's going to come out zblir. >> certainly remains an overhang and we think that facebook was a bargain at the lows we saw earlier in the summer or later in the summer but more importantly for folks who have a little bit more of a longer term view we still think shares are tractive here. that said, i don't think that all the progress they've made in mobile will be reflected in their quarterly results. we have the lockup expirations later in the fall and so we're going to see some shopping this year. >> good to have you on the show. thanks so much. enjoy the weekend. coming up, the major factors that could put the small cap rally on ice, and the fed's easing policies under fire, could they be contributing to a currency war? why brazil thinks so. "halftime report" comes back from the big board in two minutes. a crash management system and the world's only tridion safety cell
you've got sectors today, health care, staples, tech, telecom, all-time highs, just gives you a look inside the breadth of the rally. >> and i think it also gives you a little bit of glimpse inside what folks and money managers are thinking for the last few months of the year, a lot of folks are talking about the lower dollar reflationary trades of 2010 and 2011 coming back. i disagree, i'm short the euro currency, you want to stay u.s. centric and the names you're mentioning they align properly with a higher u.s. dollar. >> weiss, i'll ask you, you're active every day in the market. dow is closer to obviously 14,000 than it is 13,000. are we going to get to 14? >> i think we do. so many people are underinvested and i don't buy into hedge funds playing catchup, at least not the big ones. all of them i know are disciplined, and saying hey i got to show numbers that's different. look at the stocks moving up, you're moving mega caps like a chevron, like an apple, that
means people want to get in quickly and name more liquidity. >> it doesn't mean buy the losers. everyone thinks your stock is getting hammered. target, costco, the charts keep going higher and defy almost gravity. >> i just wanted to say tip of the hat, a shot out to clarence otis, because this guy who runs one of the stocks on the all-time high list and you buy stocks if they have a great management team, this is a great manager doing a fantastic job even in a very rough question. >> you're looking for a free meal at the olive garden. >> i am or maybe capital grille. del frescos are my guys. >> mega caps work, small cap stocks closing in on all-time highs. this group is one of the best
ways to play qe. steven, good to have you. >> good afternoon, how are you? >> good, thank you. is the party going to continue for small caps here? >> i'd like to think so but i think the report that we put out this week said that probably not. i think we're going to stall here and we've had a pretty good run since july 24th, as you guys are pointing out, off of qe, and i think there's going to be some headwinds coming with the reporting season and in the fourth quarter. >> the issue, small caps more so than larger cap stocks is one bit of bad news can hit those stocks a little bit harder, correct? >> you know what the biggest thing is going to be around earnings and with the u.s. economy, most of small cap is domestically focused,'u.s. economy is slowing it will affect their earnings. if you look at the second quarter reporting season it wasn't a great one for small cap companies, earnings were up
slightly, they were ahead of expectations by a slimmer margin than in previous quarters and sales missed despite the fact they don't have a lot of overseas exposure so you're not seeing the corporate profitability you see in the large cap space. >> could it be a boon for small caps being so u.s.-centric? one of the things people consistently say is pick stocks that have big exposure to the united states, not so much to europe or china or other areas of the world slowing perhaps more dramatically than we are and having other issues. >> that's a good point and that is true but when you look at a gdp tracking somewhere in the low 1% range that's really going to impact small company earnings. what we've actually talked about with clients is you want those companies that aren't really economically centric you want companies that are going to be more secular growth stories, companies that don't rely on the economy, they may have a particular product, they may
have a particular niche, kind of growing their business, but more -- less economically sensitive, more growth centric or sort of the one of the plays you want to make in terms of a slowing, in the overall economy. >> steve, small caps traditionally lead on the way up, outperform significantly in a lot of rallies and on the declining markets the bear markets they lead the market down tra dagsally. >> right. >> you have to be worried about the overall market if you're worried about small caps. >> i think our overall target for the s&p and small cap is for the market to kind of stall out here in terms of our overall return, i think it's 1450 is our year-end target for the s&p so we are worried about the overall market and small caps specifically again a lot of that resolves around fiscal cliff and a slowing second half of the second half of the year, and the other big thing is going to be the fact that volatility is so low, volatility actually does go
higher, that will impact small cap more than large cap. >> steve thanks for coming on the show. enjoy the weekend. we'll catch you again soon. >> scott, fiscal cliff, there is no cliff. we'll keep going, we'll push it out but not going to see that happen. that's why the market is where it is and nobody's worried. >> joe terranova, how many hundreds of points ago have we been talking about there's got to be a pullback, the market will stall and yet it continues this melt-up? >> i think in the markets historically they tend to peak out on euphoria and if you want a euphoric moment think about what steven is talking about and i agree, and think about the potential for a grand compromise in the fiscal cliff in the first quarter of 2013. to me that's the most euphoric moment the markets can have and if you're looking for a top, that's what coincides with it. >> cnbc is taking votes for our interactive ego trip poll. we want you the viewer to vote on who you think had the best or biggest ego trip this week.
nominees include mitt romney, the iphone 5 buyer or starbucks howard schultz. go to facebook.com/cnbc and give us your vote. tune in to "street signs" for the big reveal. when "halftime" returns, brazil accuses u.s. policymakers of fueling a currency war, a look at whether there's any substance behind the accusation, and your tweets, as always, traded, which ones made today's cut? we'll reveal those when we come back. [ male announcer ] when a major hospital
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welcome back to the new york stock exchange. we've fixed our microphone issues and hope all of you can hear me. the practice zillionian finance minister is warning that quantitative easing programs in the u.s. and japan are sparking a global currency war. to discuss the implications and how you can trade this clash, let's bring in forest schlossberg, managing director at bk asset management. boris, welcome back to "halftime." >> good to be with you, scotty. >> if we are in the midst of the war, who is going to win? >> as was said this morning, there's nothing attractive about the yen, the euro or the dollar, but i do think that the qe story is interesting because it is clearly flaming some price inflation amongst the commodities across the world and the interesting trade here is actually short aussie, long kiwi, the aussie/kiwi cross primarily because australia has
been the darling of the currency market for a long thyme, piggybacking on china's strength. as china's economy slows down, iron ore coal comes down, and kiwi primarily producing soft commodities like meat and wheat it going to benefit tremendously. and meat is going benefit tremendously. i heard today they may be running out of chicken wings before the super bowl. think those kind of stories we'll start to hear more and more and that is going to help the whole stock commodity story and help kiwi as we go forward. >> if we want to make this trade, what are you levels? >> i like selling you a sti kau just below the lows around now. that would suggest that the trade is really working our way with a stop at $27.50, it is the first target around 2,500. see if we can squeeze it down to 1.20. i think the rba will lower rates in october that will weaken the aussie even further. i think the kiwi is going to look outstanding in relative respect. these are the kind of trades you
need to look for, relative trades, not absolute trades, because everything else in the currency market looks horrible. >> got to run but what's the next stop for euro? >> i think the euro is in a quandary. this volatility is very emproblematic of a top run. >> that's a difficult trade for so many of us these days. catch more currency trades tonight and every friday, 5:30 p.m. on cnbc's ""money in motion."" you have questions, our traders have the answers. s seema, what are traders talking about on twitter today? >> lot of big questions. let's get right to the tweets. mike asked what's going on with aig lately? it's lost most of its gains since the buyback. what about that $5 billion buyback? that was half what the market anticipated, joe. what's the outlook? >> with seema sitting right next to me, so i'm happy to be alone with you guys away from me. when you look at aig, clearly
this -- >> easy, joe. >> -- this has been the moment for investors who have been riding it to the up side. i think when you look overall at the life insurers themselves, unfortunately continued low rates don't set up nicely for them. i think you go property here i'm long travelers. it's lard to ignore the performance in a name like all didn't sta state or progressive. >> let's get to the next one. "with the china slowdown in rail guidance cuts has joy global run out of happiness and is it time to press the shorts or should you cover. steve grasso? >> everything that you just set up as a premise is not relying -- the market's not relying on fundamentals. the market's relying on qe3. the pop that you've seen in joy global when we saw that coming out of qe3 announcement, i think that might be a little bit long in the tooth you want to be
careful getting into these. any pull back in the market, these are the ones that will be further sold. coming up in the next hour, companies duking it out rather than aiming for partnerships. we'll talk with one ceo about to have a big fight on his hands. but first, final trades when "halftime" comes back from the new york stock exchange. managing my diabetes is part of my life,
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welcome back. time for "pops and drops," the biggest movers in midday trading. >> european commission saying they aren't going to approve the weight loss drug that's bad for business. it is very good. >> it seems that the bleeding has stopped. people are starting to get back into some of the refining space. i'm still a buyer. >> you love this story, michael
kors popping 6%. >> estimates were 30%. other side is coach which is now giving 25% discounts to department stores. stay with the quality, stay away from the fat. huge growth ahead of them. too expensive for me still. >> dr. j gave a shout out to clarence otis at darden. >> 85 cents versus what the street was expecting, which is 83. stay on the stock for the long side. >> pop for the woz. if you think it is crazy to wait in line for the iphone 5, apple co-founder steve wozniak flew all the way to australia and waited in line overnight to be among the first on earth to own the new phone. i'm sure he didn't even have to wait. wozniak sprung for two iphones, one black, one white, saying they were both so beautiful he couldn't decide. i'm sure he didn't have to wait
to get his hand on the phone if he really wanted to. >> that's almost two days on a plane. >> i drove 12 minutes to get mine. >> he's got to get a hobby. >> it is. he's making millions. we're in the midst of this melt up, another good day for the markets. all the focus is on apple. there should and good amount of attention paid to this quad witching day down here on the street. some unusual activity. >> we've got a lot of folks that are in here of course shoring up positions that expire today so they've been rolling out throughout the week into next week and into of course october and november options. more and more people want to set up for the election are going to be in the november options, scott. so those that aren't already listed come on next week. >> i think it is generally been a positive day for the stock market quad witching days.
>> it's interesting to me, it feels so much quieter today in terms of volumes than the normal quad witches which we've seen which use to be big events. people come in and take the opportunity to get investing. >> mondays are usually down so maybe today you want to sell the market, buy it back on monday. other than that, emc on all this cloud storage, stay long. >> that's one of the most interesting stories of this entire run. if we go positive for september, we'll be 11 out of 12 months that the dow jones industrial average has been in positive territory. we haven't done that in some 53 years, yet we've had this whole run of 14 or 15 mondays where they've been down. >> final trade, i'm adding to my short in cat. fundamentals worsening. stock traded up. >> great charity, 146.org. child trafficking. they do fabulous work but activision is my final play.